Poll Pandemonium

As any businessperson knows, the 2010 election season began long before its traditional Labor Day kickoff. The economic crisis forced candidates to take on tough issues like taxes, regulation, and the credit crunch months earlier than they normally would.
But now the campaigns will really heat up, for better and worse. The good news: You'll have more information than ever before at a time when it's critical to elect pro-business candidates at all levels of government. The problem: You can expect a deluge of political junk mail, stomach-turning attack ads -- and a torrent of confusing, conflicting polls.
Alas, there's not much you can do about the stuff that will clog every imaginable communication pathway between now and election day. But when it comes to polls, you can separate glitter from gold.
Like any form of market research, the validity of a poll depends largely on who answered the questions. In general, you can trust a poll of randomly selected voters to fairly represent the views of engaged citizens. But numbers matter: If there were fewer than 100 respondents, beware. And don't put much stock in those so-called "voter analyses" offered by TV talk show hosts ("Phones are open now! Be heard in our insta-poll!") Any show with a national audience can reel in huge numbers of callers in minutes -- but they will represent only the fans of that show, not a meaningful cross-section of ordinary people.
Also, pay attention to who paid for a poll. That's not to suggest that polls are routinely rigged. But there's no doubt that subtle choices in wording and structure can influence the outcome. For example, you could see a specimen like this:

Question: How important is it to raise corporate taxes so businesses will pay their fair share?
Answers:
(1) Extremely important
(2) Very important
(3) Important

Exaggerated? Well, yes. Aberrant? Unfortunately, no.
Why do polls matter? Every businessperson has a big stake in this election -- so you need to be informed, not misled. At the same time, remember: No poll is a substitute for real time, personal interactions with the men and women who want your vote. Get out there and ask them your own questions.